Moderate Left Bias
This article has moderate left bias with a bias score of -51.05 from our political bias detecting A.I.
Although conventional wisdom in Washington seems to suggest that the House will impeach Donald Trump while the Republican-led Senate will vote to acquit, in reality, I think it’s in the Republican’s best interests to impeach him in the House and then convict him in the Senate. Hear me out on this.
First off, we’ve got the obvious issue of being tainted by association. Trump’s provably corrupt, if not provably insane (particularly judging by the more and more crazed rants that we’re seeing on Twitter, following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement), and the continuing support of the Republican Party behind him is simply painting them with the same brush: they have enabled him, backed him, defended him, even when it’s pretty clear that such reasoning as is provided is both weak and not really likely to stand up to scrutiny.
Realistically, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif) have more important things to do than worry about Trump: McCarthy has to attempt to retake the House, and McConnell needs to preserve that razor-thin majority in the Senate — particularly bearing in mind that the Republicans will be defending 23 Senate seats to the 12 seats being defended by the Democrats. That could be quite the uphill battle, but even moreso if Trump’s corruption (and the taint by association) is hanging around the necks of the Republican Party.
More than that, do note that the primaries are in progress. Although several states (South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Kansas) are likely not to hold primaries while Trump remains the incumbent, that could change if Trump is impeached by the current Congress. This might be their best option, electorally: although Trump has a lock on the current Republican base, he has next to no support among Democrats or Independents — which means at best, he might be able to swing 23 to 24 percent of the main electoral vote in 2020. That won’t be enough to hold onto the White House, particularly if we see the same sort of turnout as was observed during the 2018 midterm elections.
A different Republican candidate, particularly one disavowing Trump and pledging to return the United States to some semblance of normalcy, while still speaking to the Republican base’s issues…they might get more traction, particularly if the Trump smear machine does another number on the Democratic nominee between now and then.
Furthermore, we’ve still got just over 13 months to go until the next presidential election. If impeachment proceedings move quickly, the Republicans might well be better served with President Pence than by President Trump. Although he’s well known as a “Christian Dominionist” and unlikely to garner high levels of support in a presidential election, he’s much more politically savvy and far less emotionally erratic than Trump — so getting shot of the top of the ticket gives the GOP opportunity to distance themselves from the Trump administration and still have a president in the Oval Office that is sympathetic to their agenda, and might help push things along in that direction.
It similarly gives the Republicans chance to “re-invent” themselves. Though nothing would actually change within their ranks, they could wage a PR campaign observing that Trump was offering change that they hoped for, but in reality contributed to the swamp rather than drained it. Thus, at the end, they did the honourable thing and removed him from office, allowing them to begin the slow and laborious process of improving the Republican Party…with a view to doing x, y and z if you vote for them in 2020 — in other words, they wash their hands clean, and go back to doing what they always do.
I should also note that such an action would give the GOP claim to bipartisan co-operation: “Look, we came together with the Democrats in service of our country, to remove a cancer at the heart of our government. We did this in patriotic spirit, recognising that our country is bigger than one man, and that nobody can be allowed to act in such a fashion while representing the United States.”
Wanna bet that wouldn’t score them some serious points with Independents?
Trump is now a gigantic liability for the Republican Party, and maintaining a defense of a damaged president may be the way that pushes their party into collapse. Getting rid of him via the opening of impeachment may well be the best strategic move they could possibly make at this junction.
Thus, the Democrats absolutely need to keep these impeachment hearings going as long as possible — not only to dig up every single iota of dirt that the president has been hiding, but also to ensure that the GOP don’t have time to right the ship before the 2020 elections. They nominated him, endorsed him, supported him and enabled him throughout everything he’s done: he is reflective of the entire Republican Party now. They cannot be allowed to kick him out of office and act as though it was a mistake, and that they have now seen the light.
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