The Thing is, Trump will Probably Win 2020

The Thing is, Trump will Probably Win 2020


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Donald Trump’s presidency has been anything but predictable.

It’s a continuous roller coaster and no one can really know what might follow, but underneath all the noise, the commander-in-chief has actually done a better job than many might have thought.

Yes, the presidency has been controversial with Trump often angrily-tweeting from behind his phone, but has he worked enough to get re-elected as Democrats gear up to remove the businessman-turned-politician out of the White House? With a successful midterm election from the Democratic Party, one might think the president holds a bleak chance of regaining office, however, things might not be what they seem.

In fact, if history is any indicator, President Trump is well on his way of holding the office for an additional four years.

You wonder why? All you see are unflattering headlines and angry outburst on media from the commander-in-chief but we have some news for you: Trump is here to stay.

Polls do not translate to actual results

According to a recent Fox News poll, less than 40 percent of voters would re-elect Trump, if the elections were to happen right now. A majority of the voters said they would rather see someone else hold office. When looking at the negative polls for the president one would assume that the public has spoken, however, traditionally, the question if a sitting president would be re-elected has usually failed to predict the actual outcome of the elections.

According to CNN’s Harry Enten, in 1980 and 1992, the voters’ poll resulted in favor of the sitting president, however, both the times the president would end up losing the elections. Similarly, 1984, 1996 and 2012 cycles, when the polls didn’t favor the president, he would go on to win.

Incumbency comes with its own set of advantages

A defending champion always seems like a safer bet. It is as simple as that.

Trump, like other presidents before him, has already run a successful campaign. He knows what worked for him and what didn’t. The re-elections are the incumbent’s playing field, one that he knows well. Anyone up against him will have to work that much harder to uproot him from the office.

History also supports incumbents. 15 out of 20 presidents seeking reelection, since 1900, have come out victorious at the end of their election campaign. It has been proved rather difficult to boot out a president from the office before they complete their eight years. In fact, the more controversial the president, the bigger the re-election victory and Trump is nothing if not controversial. even his critics would agree.

Photo by Element5 Digital on Unsplash

Economic growth plays a huge role

Trump’s biggest concern as a president is the economy and if all goes well for the commander-in-chief, it could be the biggest factor in what drives him over the line in the 2020 elections.

The GDP has been steadily growing under the Trump presidency. Should Trump avoid an economic recession by 2020, his overall numbers should secure him the votes he needs to be president once again.

The GDP growth and the falling numbers of unemployment bring good news for the president.

The unemployment has also been going down as they were by the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. If these two economic indicators are to go by, Trump will probably emerge victorious.

People want to watch Trump

Love him or hate him, Trump has his appeal.

People want to watch him. Whether it was as a businessman in a reality TV show or a president running the country, Trump has managed to grab people’s attention – and keep it.

It may seem like nothing but it is important.

For a representative of the people, it is important that people pay attention to what he has to say. People might not agree with Trump, yet they listen to what he has to offer. While many Democrats hope that America will finally tire of the “Trump Presidency Show,” the latest numbers show no decline in viewership.

According to The New York Times, prime-time ratings for CNN, MSNBC and Fox News have seen a constant rise since 2014.

Nell Scovell, a veteran comedy writer recalled when a cab driver once told her that he would be voting for Trump and the only reason for his vote was that the then-presidential nominee made him laugh.

Now, 3 years into his presidency, Trump has successfully kept the audience glued to their screens.

Midterm elections, historically, mean nothing

Winning 40 extra seats in the 2018 Midterm elections, the Democrats gained control of the House, while Republicans kept control of the Senate.

While the ending of the Republican Federal Trifecta had many people predicting the future of the presidency based off of the 2018 midterm results, previous presidencies have shown that these results mean next to nothing when it comes to the re-election for Trump.

Bill Clinton’s party, in 1994, and Obama’s party, in 2010, both lost House seats in midterm elections (Clinton lost 52 while Obama lost a whopping 63), yet, two years later they came out on top in their re-election bid by a huge margin. Considering these results, history proves that midterm election result may switch control of the House or Senate but they hold a much smaller significance when it comes to the president.

Weak Democratic nominations

Another advantage for Trump is that we still do not know who is going up against him. There are over a dozen Democrats going head-to-head to win the party’s presidential nomination.

However, it is quite difficult to predict which way the Democrats are going to lean. Will they go the Joe Biden way, a seasoned politician that the public is familiar with? In recent years, John Kerry, John McCain, and Hillary Clinton have all faced defeats. People, apparently, do not want the same faces, who have had their chance, to run America.

Or, will they go for candidates like Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren? Both the women represent the far-left and, if nominated and elected, would become the first female president of the US. However, extreme ideologies scare people and many voters might be inclined to vote for Trump because they do not want an extreme cultural change.

Therefore, if the president can avoid an economic recession, it is very likely that he would resume his days at the Oval Office with a successful re-election bid in 2020.

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  • comment-avatar
    Jack Neefus April 3, 2019

    “15 out of 20 presidents seeking reelection, since 1990, have come out victorious at the end of their election campaign.”