Nate Silver: ‘Trump Could Absolutely Win Re-Election, But He Definitely Has His Work Cut Out For Him’

Nate Silver: ‘Trump Could Absolutely Win Re-Election, But He Definitely Has His Work Cut Out For Him’


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Janet Ybarra
Former Washington Journalist
Contributor on The Bipartisan Press

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Donald Trump’s increasingly looking like the underdog in the 2020 presidential race, but his re-election is not impossible, according to Nate Silver, the well-known political statistician who runs the website FiveThirtyEight.

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has enjoyed a consistent lead over Trump since the campaign began. Furthermore, Biden has a larger and more solid lead against Trump than anything Hillary Clinton enjoyed in her race in 2016.

Trump tried to hit the “reset button” on his campaign by restarting his habit of large campaign rallies, with a controversial stop over the weekend in Tulsa, Okla. Attendance at the Tulsa event was sparse, however.

“But there are a lot of issues for Trump. He’s behind by 10 in Michigan and Biden is doing surprisingly well in Florida ahead by 7 points. If Biden were to win Florida, and he only needs one state from that Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin group,” said Silver. “Or Biden could lose all those Midwestern states but win Arizona where our average has him up by four. So, for the time being, no, I don’t buy that we’re going to have exactly the same map as in 2016.

“Instead, Trump is kind of fighting a two-front war with problems in the Midwest on one hand, and then Arizona and Florida on the other hand. I want to be really clear — Trump could absolutely win re-election, but he definitely has his work cut out for him,” he added.

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