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As more electric vehicles (EVs) begin to take hold in the marketplace, there will continue to be a glut of oil and natural gas, oil prices will continue to be depressed (regardless of attempts by OPEC to constrain production.) Oil sands production will continue to be pulled back, and the new pipelines will struggle to stay full.
In the longer term, I see the following:
- Petro companies consider themselves energy companies, and many are already making significant investments in renewables. As EVs start to really take over, oil and gas will start to tank (see what I did there?)
- This process will take place over a period of about 20 to 25 years as renewables make significant penetration worldwide. Coal is already toast. Dirty oil is next. Some pipeline companies will go bankrupt, and oil companies will scramble to convert their huge investments into renewables.
- EVs will take over from conventional, internal combustion engine vehicles. Diesel will be the last to go. Gas stations will either change or disappear. Oil companies will sell off their stations to independents who can eek out the last bit of profitability in gas stations.
- More importantly, as this happens, the new energy companies will buy up legacy electric utility companies and convert to new forms of micro-generation plants and local battery storage. The national energy grid will be completely transformed.